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Markov Hitting Time Calculator

Free online markov hitting time calculator. Enter your values and get instant results with the formula, step-by-step working, a worked example and FAQs — everything runs locally in your browser on Calcton, no signup required.

中文版:期望首达时间计算器

Markov Hitting Time Calculator
转移矩阵 P(2×2 或 3×3)
目标状态编号 j(到达后停止计时)

原理:期望首达时间 hᵢ 满足一阶回归方程组 hᵢ = 1 + Σⱼ Pᵢⱼ·hⱼ(目标态 h=0)——走一步花 1 步,再按转移概率接着算。把 h=0 的目标行划掉,剩下的是一个 n−1 元线性方程组,高斯消元即得。

步骤:① 输入转移矩阵;② 给出目标状态;③ 点击求解,读出从每个状态出发的期望步数。

示例:P = [[0.5, 0.5, 0], [0, 0.5, 0.5], [0, 0, 1]]、目标为状态 3 时,从状态 1 出发期望 4 步、从状态 2 出发期望 2 步——状态 1 还要先「绕」过状态 2。

注意事项:目标态必须是可达的,否则方程组无解或得到无穷大;期望首达时间与平稳分布是两个不同问题——长期占比高不等于到达快;若从某状态出发到目标的期望步数明显偏大,检查该状态是否有很强的自环。

相关:吸收马尔可夫链计算器的期望吸收步数是首达时间的特例;平稳分布计算器回答长期占比;博弈值类工具展示线性方程组在博弈论中的用途。

How to use the Markov Hitting Time Calculator

  1. Fill in the inputs with your own numbers — every field shows what it expects.
  2. The result updates instantly as you type; no "Calculate" click needed.
  3. Read the result card for the main figure, the step-by-step formula, and practical notes.

Frequently asked questions

Is the Markov Hitting Time Calculator free?

Yes — all math calculators on Calcton are free, with no sign-up required. Your inputs are processed in your browser and never sent to a server.

Is there a Chinese version of this tool?

Yes. Use the Chinese version link above — it is the same calculator with the interface in Simplified Chinese.

References

Formulas and benchmarks used by this calculator follow these published sources.

  1. dlmf.nist.gov
  2. mathworld.wolfram.com
Kevin's profile

KevinContent LeadCalcton Editorial Team · Last updated 2026-10-05

Kevin maintains Calcton's formula verification and content: every calculator cites the standard it implements, worked examples are recomputed programmatically, and health benchmarks follow WHO and international guidelines.

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