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Odds Algorithm Calculator

Free online odds algorithm calculator. Enter your values and get instant results with the formula, step-by-step working, a worked example and FAQs — everything runs locally in your browser on Calcton, no signup required.

中文版:赔率算法在线计算器

Odds Algorithm Calculator
逐次成功概率 p₁, p₂, …(逗号分隔,0 < p < 1,最多 20 项)

原理:Bruss 赔率定理(2000)解决「目标:选中最后一次成功」的停止问题——比如在限时里挑选最后一个合适房源、等到最后一场好天气再出发。每次机会 i 以已知概率 pᵢ 独立成功。定义赔率 qᵢ = pᵢ/(1−pᵢ),从最后一次机会往前累加 qᵢ,首次使累计和 ≥ 1 的位置 s 就是停止阈值:从第 s 次机会起,接受出现的第一个成功;此前只观望。最优成功概率为 P = (∏ᵢ≥ₛ (1−pᵢ))·Σᵢ≥ₛ qᵢ。与要求「选最佳」的 37% 法则(secretary 问题)不同,赔率定理目标是「最后一个成功」,计算只需一次 backward 累加。

步骤:输入各次机会的成功概率,得到阈值 s、最优概率 P 与 odds 和(当 Σqᵢ 恰在 s 处跨过 1 时多个 s 并列最优)。

示例:pᵢ = 1/(i+1)(i = 1…10)时 s = 4、P = 0.398412698413;n = 20 时 s = 8、P = 0.382812386395;p ≡ 0.5(10 次)时阈值一路推到 s = 10、P = 0.5—— Odds 定理告诉你「一直等到最后」反而最优。

注意事项:概率须在开区间 (0, 1) 内(p = 1 时问题平凡);并列最优时取首个跨过 1 的位置。P 由穷举公式 ∑ pᵢ·∏(1−p) 校验,与定理公式一致。

相关:n = 10 时 P = 0.398412698413;n = 20 时 P = 0.382812386395;阈值 s = 4。

How to use the Odds Algorithm Calculator

  1. Fill in the inputs with your own numbers — every field shows what it expects.
  2. The result updates instantly as you type; no "Calculate" click needed.
  3. Read the result card for the main figure, the step-by-step formula, and practical notes.

Frequently asked questions

Is the Odds Algorithm Calculator free?

Yes — all math calculators on Calcton are free, with no sign-up required. Your inputs are processed in your browser and never sent to a server.

Is there a Chinese version of this tool?

Yes. Use the Chinese version link above — it is the same calculator with the interface in Simplified Chinese.

References

Formulas and benchmarks used by this calculator follow these published sources.

  1. dlmf.nist.gov
  2. mathworld.wolfram.com
Kevin's profile

KevinContent LeadCalcton Editorial Team · Last updated 2026-10-01

Kevin maintains Calcton's formula verification and content: every calculator cites the standard it implements, worked examples are recomputed programmatically, and health benchmarks follow WHO and international guidelines.

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